Nanosciences, nanotechnologies, materials and new production technologies (NMP) have the potential to contribute significantly to the move from a resource intensive economy to a knowledge-intensive economy. They will lead to new applications, new business models, new products, new production patterns, new services, new processes, substitution of resources, higher material and energy efficiency and changes in technological competitiveness. These effects may bring along significant growth of value added, employment or trade balance in the European industry. E.g. new job opportunities will be provided, existing jobs will be protected, but also some may disappear through substitution.
While there are high expectations in positive economic impacts of NMP technologies, only few information about the concrete potential drivers, impact mechanisms, quantitative effects on growth and potential differences between sectors is available.
The growing global population and economy will lead to intensified competition for resources, from fossil fuels to critical raw materials: many of these non-renewable resources are scarce (particularly in Europe), costly to extract or unevenly distributed globally, creating risks of supply disruptions. This is a driver for technological development, as competition spurs research into alternative energy sources, substitutes for scarce materials and new extraction methods as well as more efficient ways of using these resources. Ecosystem degradation is threatening renewable resources and will drive innovation to improve the efficiency of extraction and use and also to strengthen ecosystem protection and management. The growing threats of climate change and environmental pollution can also spur research and innovation for low-carbon and less pollution technologies.
Finally, technology itself is a driver, facilitating new forms of communication, collaboration and access to information — factors that in accelerate scientific collaboration and innovation. At the same time, many inventions build on previous ones, and this means that technological changes are often ‘path dependent’.
The next, long-term wave of innovation and growth will be formed by symbioses among the rapidly emerging nanosciences and nanotechnologies, biotechnology and life-sciences, and information and computer technology together with cognitive sciences and neurotechnologies — the ‘NBIC cluster’. Cycles of technology-induced social and economic change have accelerated in recent decades and are likely to move even faster, there is exponential rather than linear growth for some areas of technological progress.
Although the acceleration of innovation and technological change is stable, its direction is uncertain. Many NBIC technologies are still in the laboratory, and future discoveries cannot be predicted — nor which innovations will be commercially viable. Besides technological constraints, key uncertainties relate to future levels of research funding, education –talent for innovation- and also to the role of public policy. Intellectual property regimes and the way they may shape development are also a major concern across new technologies.
Growing global urbanization is driven by developing-world industrialization, agricultural mechanization, and environmental change, but above all by growth of the global population. Today there are 7 billion people, but 8.3–10.9 billion are expected by 2050, with a medium variant of 9.6 billion. Urbanization can blur the divides between urban and rural areas, creating ever-larger and ever‑more important peri‑urban areas, with their own range of specific characteristics, problems and opportunities.
These new technologies have a part to play in the shift towards resource-efficient, low-carbon urban economies and ecological impact of urbanization. Examples include nanotechnologies for energy conversion and storage; replacement of toxic materials; new, lighter materials; environmental remediation and the use of enzymes in renewable energy production. Technological advances that enable machines to perform human tasks could have implications for society, in particular influencing inequality. Increasing use of machines may depress wages for some, while boosting demand for highly skilled labor and low-skilled service-sector work. The resulting polarization of job opportunities could contribute to greater earnings inequality. By reducing demand for labor relative to machinery, new technologies can also mean that returns to production increasingly accrue to the owners of physical capital.
Drivers are the development of Nanosciences and nanotechnologies – studying phenomena and manipulation of matter at the nanoscale and developing nanotechnologies leading to the manufacturing of new products and services. The development of Advanced Materials – using the knowledge of nanotechnologies and biotechnologies for new products and processes. And the introduction of New production – creating conditions for continuous innovation and for developing generic production ‘assets’ (technologies, organization and production facilities as well as human resources), while meeting safety and environmental requirements. The Integration of (NBIC) technologies for industrial applications – focusing on new technologies, materials and applications
Besides the overall view on the mentioned trends, there are specific differences and unique characteristics to different sectors, in which New Production Technologies (NMP) play an important role or might do so in the future. We chose those industrial sectors, which have a special relevance to NMP, are relevant because of many promising NMP applications and are most adequate, representative and best linked to the NMP field in terms of coverage of the technologies behind:
- Chemicals (covering chemical nanomaterials, advanced materials, etc. within the chemical industries).
- Pharmaceuticals (as part of the nanomedicine and nanobiotechnology innovations in the pharma industry).
- Electronics (covering nanoelectronics with a focus on the semiconductor industry).
- Photonics (Optics)/Instruments (covering the optics/photonics industry as well as instruments and equipment, where NMP is contributing to).
- Automotive/Vehicles (where NMP enters via new functionalities and improved characteristics due to nanostructured devices and components, advanced materials and production technologies for new designs and efficient manufacturing).
- Machinery for advanced manufacturing (covering the improvement of machines via NMP as well as advanced processes for manufacturing via NMP).
As much new technology with the potential to being disruptive is already available, preventive and proactive responses to deal with emerging problems and changing socio-political and environmental landscapes should become a priority. The precautionary principle should help shape innovation towards societal utility, environmental desirability and sustainability. When considering options, societal problems can also be viewed as opportunities. This approach fosters new ideas that may stimulate innovation and ways of thinking, including regarding the types of institutions and policies that can best support innovation and its use.
Vulnerabilities are created when policies do not keep up with the opportunities and threats of unfolding dynamics, conditions and realities of socio-technological systems. Thus, a key consideration for innovation governance is an ability to react, learn and adapt. New governance paradigms that emphasize reflexivity create capacities for adaptive decision-making — interventions essential for coping with emerging impacts.